Conferences and Working Papers

The Central Bank of Belize produces papers on a variety of topics relevant to its work. The Bank’s Research Department produces research papers on economic, monetary and financial issues with a view to increasing the knowledge base on the Belizean economy and issues pertaining to its development and stability. These papers are generally presented at regional or national conferences, seminars and workshops.

The views in the research papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Central Bank of Belize. Permission is required from the authors before papers can be quoted or reproduced.

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  • Cultural Tourism in Belize: Analyzing the Archaeological Segment

    This study was presented at the Fourth Bi-National Mexico-Belize Seminar in Belmopan in October 2018. Maya Heritage, which includes both the culture and archaeological sites, is an important component of the tourism product. The majority of Mayan Archaeological sites remain undeveloped in Belize. Those that have been developed are an important part of the country’s tourism product and are visited annually by a significant percentage of the thousands of overnight and cruise ship tourists that visit the country. This research seeks to examine the significance of cultural tourism in Belize and profiles trip characteristics of those visitors.

  • Exploring the Relationship between Airbnb and the Hotel Industry

    This paper was presented at the 50th Annual Monetary Studies Conference in Barbados in November 2018. This study uses spatial analysis techniques to conduct a location pattern analysis of Airbnb rentals and traditional hotels in Belize. The impact of Airbnb listings on hotel revenue is then examined using a panel regression model with fixed effects. The findings reveal that overall Airbnb rentals tend to be concentrated in main tourist areas, while having a positive but statistically insignificant effect on total hotel revenue. However, when disaggregated by quintile groups, the relationship differs and Airbnb rentals compete more directly with lower-end hotels.

    • 7 Feb 2019
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    • by Janelle J Leslie and Giselle Waight - Airbnb in Belize

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  • Tipping Point: The Efficiency and Sufficiency of the Tax Structure in Belize

    This paper was presented at the Research Review Seminar in Trinidad and Tobago in June 2018 and at the 50th Annual Monetary Studies Conference in Barbados in November 2018. The study examines the fiscal revenue performance by ascertaining the efficiency and sufficiency of the prevailing tax system, using buoyancy, elasticity, and tax capacity/effort indicators. Quarterly data are used to estimate buoyancy and elasticity of tax revenues, using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Square and the Divisia Index approach. Empirical findings from Pooled and Fixed Effects OLS models are used to determine the optimal tax capacity/effort from a panel dataset on tax revenue for 60 developing countries over four decades (1977-2016).

    • 7 Feb 2019
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    • by Lylia Roberts, Candice Soutar-Smith and Giselle Waight - Tax Structure in Belize

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  • The Efficacy of Monetary Policy in Belize

    This paper analyses Belize's experience with monetary policy in the period 1977-1982, where an attempt was made to alter the power relationship between the central authority and the rest of the financial system. The effectiveness of policy decisions made during this period is examined in terms of impact on targets, as well as institutional framework within which policy makers operated.

    • by Dorla Humes - The Efficacy of Monetary Policy in Belize

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  • An Analysis of Private Sector Credit in Belize

    Paper was presented at the 49th Annual Monetary Studies Conference in Belize in November 2017. This paper seeks to identify the long run determinants and short run dynamics influencing Belize credit growth performance during the period 1997 to 2016. Restrictions were applied to a vector error correction model to identify credit demand and credit supply behaviour. Key findings confirm the existence of a long run relationship between credit growth, domestic banks’ equity and non-performing loans, indicative of implications for regulatory capital regimes and credit risk mitigation.

    • by Paula Perez - An Analysis of Private Sector Credit in Belize

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  • Assessing Debt Sustainability in Belize

    Paper was presented at the 49th Annual Monetary Studies Conference in Belize in November 2017.This paper uses non-parametric methods to examine the relationship between real GDP growth and public debt between 1981 and 2016, with the objective of identifying a suitable public debt threshold for Belize. Then, debt dynamic equations are used to trace the outcome of extending the Government’s plan fiscal consolidation efforts over a 12-year period to determine the size of fiscal adjustment needed to reduce the debt-to-GDP ratio to the desired target. The results show that average real GDP growth and median real GDP growth are highest when public debt is below 60% of GDP. Furthermore, Government would need to strengthen its fiscal consolidation efforts by maintaining a constant primary balance of 3.3% of GDP to achieve the goal.

    • 23 Oct 2017
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    • by Emory A. Ford and Lylia I. Roberts - Assessing Debt Sustainability in Belize by E Ford & L Roberts

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  • Implementing Corporate Governance in the Caribbean

    Corporate Governance is central to efficiently operating any financial institutions but remains insufficiently explored in the Caribbean. This research compares two such jurisdictions, namely Belize and Jamaica, in relation to the United Kingdom, which has one of the more comprehensive bank corporate governance framework. The contributions of this research are threefold in respect to suitability of the current corporate governance framework, the role of the regulatory institutions, and the fundamental obligation of the governments.

    • by Brian Duncan - Implementing Corporate Governance in the Caribbean

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  • The Relationship between the Development of Financial Markets and Security Interest Laws

    This article describes the developments in the financial markets as a result of the legislation of security interest laws by initially capturing the basic legal concepts of security interest. Thereafter, an analysis is undertaken on the ever-evolving relationship between security interest and the financial markets globally while identifying both some notable benefits and some disadvantages that have been characteristic of this development. The discussion briefly addresses some important considerations for the continued development of financial markets and their relationship with security interest laws. This material was first published by Thomson Reuters (Professional) UK Limited by Brian Duncan and Mahmood Bagheri, The Relationship between the Development of Financial Markets and Security Interest Laws, 2017 Vol. 32 Journal of International Banking Law & Regulation, Issue 4 and is reproduced by agreement with the Publishers.

    • 10 Aug 2017
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    • by Brian Duncan and Mahmood Bagheri - The Relationship between the Development of Financial Markets and Security Interest Laws

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  • Evaluating Short Term Bridge Model Forecasts of Real GDP in Belize: A Quarterly Approach

    Short term econometric forecasts of real GDP is an analytical tool that has been conspicuously absent in Belize. This study attempts to assess three types of econometric models and their accuracy in out of sample forecasts, namely (i) factor models, (ii) indicator models and (iii) a sectoral model of the supply side of the economy. Fourteen different models of quarterly GDP were estimated and the most precise were chosen using descriptive measures of accuracy, namely the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that the indicator models provide the most precise estimates and that combination techniques improved forecast accuracy over the period of evaluation. Furthermore, reliable estimates of growth are provided within one month of the end of the quarter, half the time it takes to disseminate the actual GDP information.

    • by Rumile Arana - Evaluating Short Term Bridge Model Forecasts of Real GDP in Belize - A Quarterly Approach

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  • The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output in Belize

    This study examines the dynamic effects of taxes and government spending on output using a SVAR framework on quarterly data spanning from the second quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2012. Key findings indicate that in Belize fiscal policy is conducted in a pro-cyclical manner and has non-Keynesian effects on output.