Conferences and Working Papers

The Central Bank of Belize produces papers on a variety of topics relevant to its work. The Bank’s Research Department produces research papers on economic, monetary and financial issues with a view to increasing the knowledge base on the Belizean economy and issues pertaining to its development and stability. These papers are generally presented at regional or national conferences, seminars and workshops.

The views in the research papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Central Bank of Belize. Permission is required from the authors before papers can be quoted or reproduced.

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  • Evaluating Short Term Bridge Model Forecasts of Real GDP in Belize: A Quarterly Approach

    Short term econometric forecasts of real GDP is an analytical tool that has been conspicuously absent in Belize. This study attempts to assess three types of econometric models and their accuracy in out of sample forecasts, namely (i) factor models, (ii) indicator models and (iii) a sectoral model of the supply side of the economy. Fourteen different models of quarterly GDP were estimated and the most precise were chosen using descriptive measures of accuracy, namely the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results show that the indicator models provide the most precise estimates and that combination techniques improved forecast accuracy over the period of evaluation. Furthermore, reliable estimates of growth are provided within one month of the end of the quarter, half the time it takes to disseminate the actual GDP information.

    • by Rumile Arana - Evaluating Short Term Bridge Model Forecasts of Real GDP in Belize - A Quarterly Approach

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  • The Effects of Fiscal Policy on Output in Belize

    This study examines the dynamic effects of taxes and government spending on output using a SVAR framework on quarterly data spanning from the second quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2012. Key findings indicate that in Belize fiscal policy is conducted in a pro-cyclical manner and has non-Keynesian effects on output.

  • Belize-30 years Retrospect and the Challenges Ahead

    The purpose of this paper is to examine socio-economic developments of Belize for the past 30 years taking into perspective the analysis and views of economists, government officials, policymakers and partner international institutions and looking at the challenges ahead.

    • by Yhdalia Metzgen - Belize-30 years Retrospect and the Challenges Ahead

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  • Estimating the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) for Belize

    The purpose of this paper is to assess Belize’s external competitiveness for the period 2000-2009 by calculating three types of real effective exchange rate (REER) indices, namely the composite, commodity and tourism REER. The results for all three showed that the index fell over the period indicating that the REER had depreciated, which improved the country’s international competitiveness.

    • 30 Nov 2011
    • PDF DownloadPDF 400.8kb
      Author(s): 
    • by Jair Santoya and Candice Soutar - Estimating the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) for Belize 2011

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  • Determinants of Interest Rate Spreads in Belize

    This paper examines the components of the interest rate spreads in Belize using accounting and econometric approaches. The latter looked at factors affecting the spread and found that market share and adversely classified loans were two main determinants of the spread.

    • by Paula Perez - Determinants of Interest Rate Spreads in Belize

      PDF Download PDF 348.9kb
  • The Role of Deposit Insurance in Financial Crisis Resolution

    Paper presented at XXIV Annual Conference of the Caribbean Group of Banking Supervisors, Curacao, Netherlands Antilles. This paper examines the role of deposit insurance in financial crisis resolution and explores its effectiveness in fulfilling its mandates of promoting financial stability and development.

    • by Marlowe Neal - Role of Deposit Insurance In Financial Crisis Resolution

      PDF Download PDF 293.6kb
  • The Evolution of the Financial Sector in Belize (1996 -2007)

    The evolution of Belize’s financial system from 1996 to 2007 is examined in this study with an overview of macroeconomic developments impacting the financial sector as well as the development of the financial sector and institutions.

    • 30 Jun 2009
    • PDF DownloadPDF 122.1kb
      Author(s): 
    • by Gloria Garcia, Azucena Quan-Novelo, and Christine Vellos - The Evolution of the Financial Sector in Belize 1996-2007

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  • Assessing the Direct Economic Impact of Cruise Tourism on the Belizean Economy

    Paper prepared for presentation to the XXXIX Annual Conference of Monetary Studies, Belize City, Belize. This paper analyses the direct economic impact of cruise tourism in Belize by measuring direct payments from cruise ships and cruise visitors to domestic providers of goods and services, direct employment and government tax earnings.

    • 9 Nov 2007
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      Author(s): 
    • by Azucena Quan-Novelo, Jair Santoya, and Rasiel Vellos - Direct Economic Impact of Cruise Tourism

      PDF Download PDF 194.3kb
  • Implications of Belize’s Indebtedness for Sustained Economic Growth

    Paper presented at the XXXIII Annual Monetary Studies Conference, Belize City, Belize. This paper discusses the size and structure of Belize’s public sector external debt and analyses its implications for sustained economic growth. The paper concludes with recommendations on measures that could be taken to manage the external debt to foster, rather than retard, sustainable economic growth.

    • 19 Nov 2001
    • PDF DownloadPDF 239.9kb
      Author(s): 
    • by Melissa Robinson and Marion Palacio - Implications of Belize's Indebtedness for Sustained Economic Growth

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  • Implications of Dollarization for Belize

    This paper examines the experiences of some countries with dollarization and identifies the potential benefits and costs to Belize of dollarization.

    • by Emory Ford - Implications of Dollarization for Belize

      PDF Download PDF 120.6kb